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Revenue dropped last month. Is that the usual January slump, or the start of something worse?
What you'll have at the end
A written call on whether last month's dip is seasonal or a real trend break, checked against the same month in prior years
You need
A monthly revenue number (or a similar metric) broken out by calendar month for at least the last four to five years, plus somewhere to average a handful of numbers and find their spread.
Not covered
Building a full formal decomposition or a forecasting model; this is the fast, written call on one month's dip, not a rebuilt revenue model.
A seasonal pattern turned into a next-quarter forecast
go there once the dip is confirmed seasonal and you want next quarter's actual number instead of just an explanation of last month's.
Give a new export a sanity check
start there instead if the number itself might be wrong before it is even a question of season or trend.
Checked 26 Aug 2026
Part of the Data Analytics cookbook